In this lesson, let’s learn a little bit about chance and probability and the problem wants us to use the words, like, likely, unlikely, certain, impossible etcetera to describe the probability in this situations given here, okay.
Now what is probability? Probability is a phrase that we use or a model that we use to define as something as likely to happen or unlikely to happen. So an easy way to understand this is this the probability. Probability of something happening is zero if it is impossible. If we know it is definitely going to happen then the probability is one. So the probability of anything is between zero and one, ether it won't happen, it will happen or somewhere in the middle.
Right by the middle half is as likely as not. So like if you flip a coin, we may get a head or a tale but we don’t know what the outcomes going to be but both are equally likely, okay. So then you’ve got unlikely which is at the probability closer to impossible and likely as the probability is closer to certain.
So let’s do this, lets actually look at the situations and try and describe them. Picking a yellow jelly bean from a bag which contains three orange and twelve yellow jelly beans, so what I'm going to do is I'm going to make a bag, all right and its got three orange jelly beans and its got twelve yellow jelly beans. So lets assume the green color beans are yellow and the orange colored ones are shown as red.
So when I pick a jelly bean from a bag, what is the chance that I'll get one of this? Well there's 12 of this and three of this, so there's a good likely, high likely that I will pick one of the green ones, right because there's so many more of them. So that probability is likely, alright. So here the answer is, its likely that we will pick a yellow jelly bean because there's so many yellow compared to the orange ones.
Now picking an orange jelly bean from this bag is not likely because I've got three of them and I’ve got 12 of the other ones, right 12 of the yellow ones. So if I put my hand in with out looking and pull one out, there's a good chance I'll pick one of this, so this is not likely. Now the third one, I'm going to actually create some space. Picking a blue marble from a bag of six green marbles, so this is our bag, it got six green marbles.
What is my chance of picking a blue marble, well there are none in here, right. So there's no way I can pick a blue marble, which means the probability is impossible. The likely hood is impossible, okay. Hitting a red section on a dart board painted entirely red but again create some space. So what we have is a dart board and it’s all painted red, its all red. So if we throw a dart on this board, what is the chance we will hit a red section, which is that certain because there's no other place to hit, right. I'm certain to hit a red section because the entire dart board is red, so the likely hood is certain.
Now lets try the fifth one which is we’ve got a basket, which has got 10 red and 10 green apples. What is the probability of picking a red apple, well there equal number of red and green apples so the probability of picking one or there other is equal or what do we say above, it is as likely as not. So it would be as likely as not, so in a nutshell what did we cover. Essentially when we talk about probability and chance, we are talking about whether an event, something to happen, is it impossible, is it definitely going to happen, certain, likely which is close to certain, unlikely close to impossible or as likely as not which is equal chances of both.
For example I got three red and 12 green, in this case 12 yellow and three orange beans. Chances of me picking an orange or yellow been which is shown as green is very high, so that’s likely. Chances of picking an orange one, not as much that’s why its not likely, you get the idea.
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