Hello, this is Bill Panetta with breakouttrading.net and what we’re going to do is we’re going to take a look at these markets and see where we’re standing. The markets are at a very, very critical point here and I don’t want to waste any time. Let’s go ahead and take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average here.
You can see here, I drew this basic trendline going all the way dating back to October of ’07 coming straight down here, and you can see we’re right at this trendline here. So if we break out above this trendline, I would assume we’re going to go in this white moving average, weekly moving average. The white one is a 200-week moving average. So if we can break here above this 10500 level, it looks like we got 11000, 11200, 11300 in the carts for the Dow Jones. So this week—the next couple of weeks will be very interesting here, heading in to the New Year or coming into January. But it looks like we’re just about ready. If you’ve looked at my previous videos over the last few months, I’ve been talking about the market was not going to be satisfied until it came up and hit this trendline here, and you can verify that through my other videos.
So we’re right at this point here that we can punch through. We go up to the 200-week moving average at about 11200, 11500. Actually, we put our Fibonacci numbers in. Let’s go ahead and do our Fib work right here. So we’re at about a 50% retracement of this move right here on the Dow if we go right on up to the 61.8 retracement that matches right here with our 200-week moving average. So it looks like this 11200, 11300 area, don’t be surprised if it goes up there. I wouldn’t be surprised if it does that at all.
Looking at the S&P 500, you can see the same thing, looking at that downward trendline. We’re ready to break it and probably head up to the 200-week moving average. That’s at about 1244, 1245. So these are numbers where if the market moves and if you start hearing the technicians on the financial news networks, they’re talking about 1200 at 1240, 1250, you know where it’s coming from, right here on this weekly setup.
What’s interesting here is taking a look at the chart of the NASDAQ. You can see here that it clearly broke its downward trendline back in July. So since July, this thing has really moved up and we’re right at a critical point here. We’re right at the 200-week moving average on the NASDAQ. So this is going to be a very interesting situation here, the NASDAQ blowing through the 200-week moving average. You can see that the tick stocks have been ahead of the S&P and the Dow Jones, so this gives you a sneak preview of what’s about to happen here for the Dow and the S&P. So we’ll come back next week and we’ll see what happens here on the NASDAQ, S&P and the Dow Jones.
Looking at a weekly chart of the crude oil futures, you could see here that the crude oil is rolling over here if it breaks the 32-week moving average. It’s probably going to come down into this $60.00 range. So don’t be looking for a pullback on crude oil to about the 50-week moving average here at about 60, 61, so we’ll keep an eye on that. That’s the crude oil futures.
Next chart here we got is the gold futures. You know gold has been the hot commodity here the last two months. You can see here strongly above the 10-week moving average, so we got support here at about 11—what is that, 1102 on the gold futures, so it looked for about 1100, looked for a bounce off of 1100 and if we can hold this, we’re going to have to come all the way down and retest this breakout area of about 1035, 1030 on the gold futures. So I’m actually looking for an entry point here of the GLD, the gold exchange traded index. So the GLD might be a good trade for you, GLD, the symbol. Keep an eye on that. You might get a good trade out of it on this gold play here, so you got about 1100 to about 1035 on the gold futures as support.
Looking at a weekly chart of the US dollar, you can see that the US dollar is working out for this. So weekly trendline, you can see here it came down—it took out some stuffs below the trendline and is now reversing back up, so we’re in a very interesting area here. If we pull back and start breaking below this trendline, then you’re going to have to come all the way down and test these 2008 lows. But so far, it looks like it’s trying to hold and it’s moving up. You can see here, we’re in a very, very white channel if this thing starts heading back up. It’s got to break here—where’s resistance? I would say resistance about right here at about 81, so look for about $81.00 on the US dollar here, and then we’ll work from there. So $81.00 looks like to be a short-term target on the US dollars.
And the last chart that I want to go over is the 30-year bond, the ^TYX. I’m from the old-school from the ‘90s, so I continue to use a 30-year bond. If you pull up a 10-year bond, 30 or 20-year bond, they’re pretty much all the same. It doesn’t really matter. You can see here we’re breaking out to the upside, which means if this thing looks bullish, that means interest rates are going up. You can see that interest rates bottomed here at the beginning of the year in 2009. We had a bottom on interest rates, been moving up ever since, a breakout here. You got a resistance in this five—five and a half area on the long bond, so I’m not going to get too worried yet. If we start breaking above five and a half, then that’s going to create some noise here in the markets.
So this is Bill Panetta with the weekly wrap-up of the market here. I hope you guys have had a—actually, we had a bad year at the beginning of the year and hopefully, you guys have rallied back and made some good money to close out the year strong here. Take care and we’ll see you next week.
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