Leila: Hi and welcome to watchmojo.com. I am your host Lela. Airplanes rely on portable fuel and the others have transport revolution for moving people and freight without oil.
Anthony Perl and Richard Gilbert explained how the future of travel could look with the decline of aviation.
Can you please tell us how do the insights into the nature and dynamics of profound change in transportation assist us going forward?
Anthony Perl: Well, it's probably going to be a more change in transportation in the coming ten years than there has been in the last 40 years.
Richard Gilbert: Let me just give you one very small example crossing the Atlantic in the 50s. So at the beginning of the 50s almost everybody crossed by boat. At the end of the 50s, almost everybody was crossing by air. Now you say, well, that's what happened. But that was a really big change and we see changes of that kind happening ahead.
Leila: What kind of threats are we facing in aviation?
Anthony Perl: It's just going to be a lot more expensive to fly from place-to-place and places where there are alternatives to flying or could be alternatives to flying is where we are going to need to develop trains or lighter than airships or other substitutes. So that there is still fuel and capacity available for the places where long distance flights are still essential.
Richard Gilbert: We'll see a dramatic reduction in the number of airports. We'll see planes getting much larger because they are fuel-efficient when they are large, as long as they are fully occupied. We will see short distances, no longer travel by plane. Also long distances, very long distances if you can avoid them they won't be traveled by plane either because just the short distances and the long distances use all the fuel.
Anthony Perl: This means that the coastal cities are going to be the places where a significant aviation still happens, because that's where the end of the land-based connections will be. We have found a phrase in our research which we didn't originate, but the term Travelport, we are going to need to see airport infrastructure transformed into travelport. So these are about connecting people from surface to air when necessary as opposed to connecting people from short-haul air to long-haul air. That model of hub-and-spoke air travel is going to be one of the big change items in this transport revolution.
Speaker: Everything is going to happen,
Richard Gilbert: When we are talking about moving over long distances it's going to be a reversal of what I started talking about which was the decline in travel by sea. People don't like traveling by sea in part because it takes so long. But with marketing communications you can have a very productive time when you are doing a sixth day journey across the Atlantic, in fact with full web, and email, and everything. It may be exactly what you need to produce those last three reports that you have been trying to write.
We will see more sea travel because it's more energy-efficient. Boats can be moved by wind, development that shows not a passenger boat but another kind of boat being pulled along by a swing kite and that can reduce fuel use on the boat which is already low and reduce fuel use by 30 to 50%.
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